Understanding Future Cap Projections
The NFL has a hard salary cap, which means no team is allowed to go over the cap in a particular season; otherwise, there are penalties (such as lost draft picks) for a team going over.
Not every team operates from the same cap number, though. There is a baseline number from which every team starts, but each individual franchise has its own cap number — known as an adjusted cap number.
The formula for determining the base cap for each season is available here.
Right now, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap is projecting the baseline salary cap of 2026 to be $295,500,000.
What will affect that number for each NFL franchise in 2026?
Cap Carryover
The first adjustment, done separately from the adjustment period, is carryover. At the end of the NFL season, any cap space not used can be carried over by any team. They don’t have to carry it all over. They have the option to carry over up to 100% of the previous season’s unused cap.
Teams do have to spend a certain amount of cash in a three-season period, though. So, that plays a role in cap carryover.
Insurance Payments
Some NFL contracts, usually the big ones with big guarantees, are insured by teams. If a player is injured, the team has to pay guaranteed money, and the contract in insured, they might receive a payment from the insurance company to pay them back the money they paid to the player (not necessarily 100% of the money). Any money paid by the insurance company is credited back to the team.
Incentives
There are two categories of incentives: likely to be earned and not likely to be earned. Which category an incentive falls under is based on the previous season. For example, if a player has a $500,000 bonus for making the Pro Bowl, and he didn’t the year before, it’s NLTBE, and vice versa.
LTBE incentives count against the cap for the season, and NLTBE do not. So, if an LTBE incentive isn’t earned, the team will get a credit the following season. If an NLTBE incentive is earned, the team loses cap space the following season.
Grievances
There are grievances from both the team and player sides. When a player files a grievance, it’s usually owed money, and at the time of the filing 40% of the money counts against the cap. If the grievance is won by the player, and it’s greater than 40%, any money will count against the next year’s cap (if it will put a team over the salary cap).
A team’s grievance usually is about voided contracts and can also involve returned prorated bonuses. When a team wants to void a contract, they will have to file. When they file for it, and win, any guaranteed money and returned bonus money are credited back to the cap the following season.
All of this information isn’t public information. So, it’s very difficult to come up with a team’s specific projection for the adjusted cap number. For the Jets, I’ve set up a rough projection at jetscap.com, in the 2026 cap projections tab.
In the end, a team may seem to have a lot more cap space than you think, or vice versa. Darren Mougey will very likely have to navigate through a tough cap situation in 2026, and the Jets will be better off in 2027.
As a result, the building of the franchise will likely take longer than many want it to, but patience is key.